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It is hard to achieve a level of accuracy in forecasting where you know the edge sufficiently to vary from one bet to another e.g. 1.7% for one then 2.6% for another etc. Making an estimation of superiority over a longer horizon without trying to over optimise individual bets is preferable to me. I have always advocated using a staking strategy that will not compound too aggressively any overestimation in edge and also feels comfortable to the bettor.
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The difference between quinella and exacta bets are subtle but important. The order they finish in doesn’t matter, as explained, as long as they are first and second. The combinations are 7-1 or 1-7, 7-4 or 4-7 and 7-10 or 10-7. This is known as part-wheel, where some of the horses are excluded of the quinella wheel.
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